Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Bernanke...Doah!

I can't believe the Feds lowered the Fed Funds rate by 75bps this morning. What the market really needs is for a panic sell-off and not lower rates at this moment. There is too much anxiety out there. Buyers are afraid to commit big money because they are waiting for a market recapitulation and today could have been the day. Instead, the market moved up from the lows at the opening and zigged-zagged up throughout the day. I think there were a lot of people waiting for the Dow to test the intraday lows at the open but it never did. So people are now wondering what's next? Will there be a sell-off in the near future? This of course increases uncertainty and thus volatility. What the Fed did today prevented the market from selling-off so the anxiety and confusion in the market is still there. I don't really approve of what the Fed did. They should not be concerned with big downturns in the stock market. So what if the Dow goes down 700 points? It is no reason for them to try to come in and save the day. They should be concerned with fighting inflation and the state of the economy. It will be interesting to see what they do next week. Will they lower the Fed Funds rate by 50 bps? If so, why not do it all at once? By lowering rates today, they have put themselves in a position to lower rates again in one week. The Fed Funds futures market is pricing in a 50 bps reduction once again. Now, if they don't do anything, I think the market sells off once again. What they should have done is let the market sell-off first and then lower interest rates so that the reduction in rates could work as a positive catalyst to drive the market higher. It's all messed up now. BTW, the dollar got killed today.

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